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Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Opinion: The Shia-Sunni battle for oil

Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar

Some conspiracy theorists will have you believe that everything in the Middle East is about oil, including the US invasion of Iraq. But the fact is that, three years after the invasion, the Americans have not acquired any Iraqi oilfield.


Yet, in one sense the hundreds of weekly killings in Iraq are indeed about oil. This relates not to the US occupation but the Sunni-Shia struggle for controlling oil.

Iraq's population consists roughly of 60% Shia Arabs, 20% Kurds and 12% Sunni Arabs (the balance being small minorities). Iraq has for centuries been ruled by Sunnis. Democracy has now empowered the Shia majority, and Sunnis fear the consequences.

The biggest oilfields in the country are in the Shia south, and the rest are in the northern Kurdish region. There is no oil in the Sunni triangle in the middle of the country.

The new Constitution of Iraq was long delayed because of heated debates on sharing oil revenue. One constitutional provision says that oil belongs to the people of Iraq in all regions. Yet, the Constitution also gives autonomy to the three regions Shia, Sunni and Kurd. This fuels Sunni fears that the other two regions will ultimately hog all the oil.

You cannot attribute the murderous battles between Sunni and Shia militia to oil alone. The strife is also caused by religious and regional tensions, the Baathist backlash, and the belief of some Sunnis that the Shia-Kurd majority is an American poodle. Yet, overlying all these causes is tension over oil.

The tension is not limited to Iraq: it pervades the whole Gulf. Muslims in the region oppose the US occupation, yet all Arab governments desperately want US troops to stay on. Why?

Because they fear that US withdrawal will encourage Iran to foment Shia insurrections in every Sunni-ruled state in the Gulf. The Shia population is substantial and sometimes dominant along the Gulf shoreline.

The entire shoreline was part of the Persian Sassanid Empire in the 7th century. That is why the body of water was called the Persian Gulf. The Sassanid Empire was Zoroastrian. Soon after, Arab Islam swept through the Middle East.

But it split along Shia-Sunni lines. The Shias dominated Iran, Iraq and some other parts of the Gulf shoreline. The Sunnis controlled most other regions, including the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

The Middle East was ruled by the Ottoman Empire from the 13th century onwards. The Empire collapsed after World War I, and the British ushered in the rule of assorted Sunni kings and sheikhs.

Oil transformed the region. Saudi Arabia discovered the biggest oilfields in the world. But 70% of its oil lay in the Shia-majority region on the Gulf shore. This made the Saudi royal family paranoid about the possibility that these Shias, abetted by Iran (and now Iraq), would secede and take the oilfields with them.

Baqir Solagh, former interior minister and now finance minister of Iraq, last year accused Saudi Arabia of violating the civil rights of Shias in its eastern region, and called for justice.

This caused consternation in Riyadh. Shortly after, the minister's brother was kidnapped, and he attributed this to Saudi revenge. Whether true or not, it highlighted how high Sunni-Shia tensions run over oil.

Events in Lebanon have further worried the Saudis. Hezbollah, the Shia party of Lebanon, has gained de facto control of the southern part of the country. It has been armed by Iran and is too powerful for the Lebanese government to disarm.

Hezbollah battled Israel in July and August and was widely seen to have won, simply because it was the first time that Israeli forces failed to win. Hezbollah's rockets killed over 100 Israelis, and it claims to have 20,000 rockets still in reserve.

Hezbollah has become a hero to Muslims throughout the Middle East, even Sunnis. This makes Sunni rulers uneasy. The have long relied on Sunni-Shia antagonism to keep Iranian machinations at bay. But if Iran and Hezbollah attain heroic status among all Muslims in the Gulf, Sunni rulers fear loss of authority, and maybe of their oilfields too.

Many geologists feel that global oil production is close to a historical peak, after which it will decline and send prices spiralling. But one American academic, Amy Jaffe of the Baker Institute, theorises that Saudi Arabia may seek to discomfit Iran by sharply increasing oil production to deliberately cause a price crash.

Saudi Arabia has a huge trade surplus and can shrug off a lower oil price. But a low oil price will convert Iran's trade surplus into a deficit, creating problems for a country already facing international financial and banking curbs.

I personally doubt that Saudi paranoia about Iran will go to this extreme. But the very fact that academics are speculating on the impact of Shia-Sunni tensions on oil shows that the future of oil prices will be decided by geopolitics no less than geology.


Source http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/

6 Comments:

Blogger jaff sassani said...

We are appealing to all the Aryan ( Ērānšahr[58] [58]
of Sassanid Empire era or speakers of the Aryan languages) and Iranian people around the world to help us fight the discrimination of our people based on our origin as Sassanians. We are dying slowly at the hand of Mr. Jalal Talabani’s, the President of Iraq, mafia type Government in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Help your brother and sister as much as you can, raise your voice of support to save us.

The Sassanian Kurd Defense Committee (SKDC)

The Sassanian Kurd Defense Committee is here to serve the Jaff and other Kurdish people with Sassanian origin. We are a group of Kurds with Sassanian origin who believe in education and have long-term vision for your well being. The Sassanian people are not a political group and yet we have been used in turn by the Kurdish nationalist movement, the communist ideology movement, the socialist ideology movement, Islamism, the democratic ideology movement and many others. The result has always been the same; we have been used to serve others.

Today’s Jaff has a lot of educated people, that is why we believe the time is here to fight back for our rights so that we can rule ourselves instead of the war merchants and mafia type governments which rule upon us now.

We call upon our brothers and sisters of the Aryan people (Persian, Afghani, Azari, Tajak, Pashto, Blotchy, Pakistani and others) in the Middle East to support us against the unjust rule of Mr. Jalal Talabani and his cronies in our region. We need your help in order to survive. Because of his unjust policies we are dying slowly.

We call upon the collation forces and especially the US Government and the US congress to go on a fact finding mission so that they may see for themselves the conditions our people are forced to live under. So that the world may see how we are forced to live with open sewage running among our houses, producing every kind of health problem in our region.

In short, our fellow Jaff, we call on you to get united, remember your past, wake up and defend your rights. The current rule in Iraq does nothing for the over one million Sasaanians in the region while a few families reap all the rewards and wealth.

Read the short synopsis here about what we want to accomplish for our people now and in the future.

Immediate goals

1 Forming an autonomous region, within the Kurdistan federation of Iraq.
2 Hold elections, from every village to every city, so that we may elect our own administrators to run our region based on the local laws agreed upon by the people.

3 Demand our share of the budget so that we can rebuild our region.


Long term goals

1 Form a geographical federal area within Kurdistan federation region of Iraq. We will be a local federal area within our region of Kurdistan that will remain a federal area within Iraq.

2 The geographical area of our people will be where the majority is Sassanian Jaff, which includes the areas of Kafree, part of Kirkuk, SarQala, Kalar, QazelRabat, Jalawla, Qoaratoo, Madin, Baohnoor, Darbanxan, New Halabjah, Arbat, SaidSadik, Sharazoor, Halabjah, Panjawin and other areas with majority of Sassanian Jaff.

3 Work with the Kurdistan parliament to establish such a federal region based on the new Iraqi constitutions. We want to hold free and open elections to elect our own representatives. These representatives will be able to manage and control our economy so that we can be free from the abuses of other Kurdish groups who have taken our wealth for themselves in the past.

4 Establish social, economic, and educational relationships with other Aryan peoples like Afghani, Persian, Blotchy, Azari, Tajak, Pashto, and Pakistani.

5 Establish a union similar to the European Union. We know that it will be impossible to return to a single country like it was in the time of Sassanian, but we can have one Aryan economic union (AU) which can provide for a better life and peace for many generations to come.

6 The SKDC will work to make farmers in the Jaff region owners of their own land by giving them the title of ownership. The lands will traded very easy to sale or buy like the system in the Europe and the America.

7 The SKDC will continue with its work until such a time that laws have passed in the Kurdistan parliament, which will protect our rights in Kurdistan. After this is accomplished, committee elections will be held and those people who are elected will form a new committee to replace this temporary committee. We will continue with our daily work to achieve rights for our people from now until that day.

6:00 AM  
Blogger jaff sassani said...

Why we need an Aryan Economic Union (AU) similar to the European Economic Union (EU)

Since the fall of the Sassanian Empire, the principal victims of genocide or attempted genocide by the Arab Imperialists and their agents, the Sayed families, have been the Aryan nations. These people were known as Ērānšahr, or speakers of the Aryan languages, during the Sassanid Empire era. They have since come to be known as Iranian people, although these people are not limited to modern day Iran. These atrocities have been committed against our people under the pretext of the Islamic doctrine.

The campaign has never stopped. It began first with the destruction of our religion, and then continued on with the destruction of our culture. The Arab Imperialists accomplished this by creating division among the Aryan nations using nationalistic ideologies. They have used Shitte and Sunni Islam to create further division. They accuse western countries, the USA, and Israel for our division while in reality these three forces did not exist in our homeland at all when the process began. For over one thousand years, before the emergence of these forces the process was started and has never stopped. They continue even now without any end in sight.

We believe the solution to our miserable and divided Aryan nations will come when we are united economically.

One of the most powerful nations today within the Aryan people is the Persian nation in Iran. The turmoil among its people started less than one century ago when The Pahlavī (in Persian: دودمان پهلوی) dynasty started. The Pahlavī dynasty began with the crowning of Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1925 and ended with the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979. The division started among the Iranian nations when the Pahlavī rulers used force to impose the Persian language alone on all the other Aryans in the region.

Suppose the Pahlavī dynasty were to come in and rebuild the modern Iranian nation. They started by imposing the Persian language and culture on the other Aryan nations. This policy made Iran very weak among the other nations in the region. The assimilation (Farsification or Annihilation) of other nations is wrong and it is what divided the Aryan peoples. The policy led to a failed state and allowed the emergence of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the leadership of the Shitte Sayed families of Arab origin.



The Islamic Republic of Iran came to build a Shitte state led by the Sayed families. They promised Aryan nations for over one thousand years to rebuild the country based on Islamic laws and justice for all the nations within Iran. But soon, they followed in the footsteps of the Pahlavī dynasty and began ignoring the needs of the other nationalities within Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is very weak now. The monopoly of power by the Sayed families and the assimilation policies in Iran are wrong again. The Persian nation should give up these failed policies and power mongering ways, in favor of rebuilding a modern country for all. In the past the idea of the Sassanian dynasty was workable for Aryan nations. Today the world has changed, so to rebuild the country we need to look at other nations experiences.

The Pahlavī dynasty borrowed the idea of nationalism from Europe at that time. They aimed to build one nation by the policy of assimilating other nations. This eventually turned out to be the wrong policy and not workable. The countries were divided, weak and vulnerable to civil war.

The European people got away from nationalistic ideas after World War II. They have built a European Union that works for every nation in Europe. The nations, for instance Czechoslovakia, divorced to build their own countries and then got united again under the European Union.

The Persian and other Aryan nations should look at the European nations again, but this time for a better idea. The ideas implemented by the Reza Shah Pahlavi came out to be the wrong idea. Now the people should use successful ideas instead of insisting on using failed idea. The Aryan nations should be free to form their own independent countries. The people will come together very fast to form an Aryan Economic Union similar to the European Economic Union.

The Aryan Union (AU), will save our people from the harmful policies of the Sayed families. It will bring the people peace and prosperity. We will be known as Aryan nations among the European nations, Chinese nation, Japanese nation and other nations in the world.

The Aryan Union (AU) can be achieved if we approach the only super power, the USA, and ask them for help. The US helped the people in Europe achieve their Union in the past. So, we the people should ask the USA and the European Union for help to build the Aryan Union in the Middle East.

The Aryan Union (AU) should be built based on friendship and cooperation with the USA, the European Union (EU), and Israel in the Middle East.

This is an idea diametrically opposed to the ideas of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of Iran and the terrorist leader of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden. Their plan of confrontation and destruction, of declaring war on the western people, has not brought peace and prosperity to our Aryan people in the world.

The opportunity is here for our Aryan people to get liberated from the Iranian Sayed families and their Arabic doctrine. They are no different from the other Arab tyrants in the history of our people. To balance the Arabs power and their imperialistic ambitions under Islamic pretext, we need to get united and form our own Aryan Union.

The use of the Islamic religion to take over other nations is an outdated idea now. We should give the people freedom of religion and freedom of thought. Allow them to decide what they want to worship. The use of force must be brought to an end.

The ideology of the Shitte Sayed families is bankrupt. They are no different from the Abbasid dynasty in the past. We, the people have waited for over one thousand years to bring the Sayed families (the descendent of the Ali ibn Abi Talib) to power. The Sayed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s bovernment showed us what kind of the people they are when they have power. They are killers and destroyers like other Arab tyrants in the past. They turned out to be as bad as Dahag (Modern Iranian: Zahhāk).

The Shitte Sayed are not peaceful people. Our thoughts turned out to be wrong. We were taught for over one thousand years that Sayed Imams are full of kindness. We were taught that they were gentle. We were taught that they love people and all humanity. Now you see with your own eyes what kind of people they are.

The Government of Imam Sayed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini proved to our people that there is no kindness in their hearts. They are killers who are full of hatred toward humanity in general and poor Aryan people in particular.

It would fill a hundred books to write about the carnage of their unjust rule in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Look at the statistics and see how many women and poor people they have killed so far. We see what kind of Sayed they are as they put thousands of people like Mr. Abbas Amirentezam in prison for life because of their political views.

The Sayed are in power now. They are not very kind people. When you test their unjust rule, you quickly see that they come out to be harsh and heartless, without mercy for any life or humanity.

6:05 AM  
Blogger jaff sassani said...

Persian Or Parsi You Are The Most Powerful Nations Today Within The Aryan People In Iran

Wake up in your deep sleep from the religion doses. Every nation on the face of earth they have some kind of religion. But they work for the well being of their citizen beside the religion. You have to live the religion alone, that is the relationship between individual and the creator, let them worship what ever they want.

The Aryan nations need your help to get organized one more time in our history. Let every nations be free to have their own independent, and then they will get united under the Aryan Economic Union (AU) just like the European Economic Union (EU).

The old policies are wrong and did not worked. To get freedom from the Mullah we need to think differently than before.


We are calling you because you are the most powerful nations today within the Aryan nations in Iran. The turmoil among our people started less than one century ago when The Pahlavī (in Persian: دودمان پهلوی) dynasty started. The Pahlavī dynasty began with the crowning of Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1925 and ended with the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979. The division started among the Iranian nations when the Pahlavī rulers used force to impose the Persian language alone on all the other Aryans in the region.

We call to your attention our plight as groups of the Kurd with the Sassanion origin need your help for survival, in the mean time calling on you to lead us to promise land. Get us united like Europeans people.

The road to freedom from the Arab agent (Sayed Families) will be possible when we have meaning full plan. What we are offering our people instead of the religion dictatorships. The religion dictatorships are not working economically, people are suffering now. It is time for the Iranian oppositions to put meaning full plan on the table. The plans to give real freedom to every nation to be independent economically and socially like the Europeans nations.

In the past the idea of the Sassanian dynasty was workable for Aryan nations. Today the world has changed, so to rebuild the country we need to look at other nations experiences.

Please read our Idea without taking position before the reading. Come up with better Idea if you have one. Participate in our website with your plan.

In the end we hope for peace and prosperity for our nations and humanity.

SKDC
Jan-24-2008

SKDC

http://www.jaff-sassanie.com/Default.aspx

LPKM@jaff-sassanie.com

KMKS@jaff-sassanie.com

SKDC_Service@jaff-sassanie.com

8:12 AM  
Blogger jaff sassani said...

The world is evolving faster than what we expecting. Evolutions of the people in the Middle East and part of the Asia won’t be the exception, since the pre-history until now. We went through many different empires in the region.

Today the Internet communications are much faster than the old days. We are gaining knowledge about our past and our future with lesser effort than before because the resources are available immediately if you wish to know.

Please read our origin in many document available in the Internet.

“[edit] Sumerian records
According to the British scholar G. R. Driver, the earliest account of the Kurds comes from a Sumerian cuneiform clay tablet in 3rd millennium BC, on which the name of a land called Karda or Qarda is inscribed. This land south of Lake Van, was inhabited by the people of Su or Subaru who were connected with the Qurtie, a group of mountain dwellers. It is with this name Qurtie that Driver makes his first etymological connection.[6][7][8][9][10]
[edit] Indo-European migration
By about 2,000 BC, the first vanguard of the Indo-European-speaking peoples were trickling into the present-day Kurdish areas in limited numbers and settling there. They formed the aristocracy of the Mittani and Hittite kingdoms, while the common peoples there remained solidly Hurrian and Hattian, respectively.[11] By about 1,000 BC, the trickle had turned into a flood, and Indo-Europeans quickly outnumbered the Hurrians. Medes, Scythians and Sagarthians are the better-known clans of the Indo-European-speaking Aryans who settled in the area. By 1200 BCE, Medes conquered Hurrian cities and by 850 BCE, the old language of the Kurds (probably from a Dene-Caucasian family) had changed to Indo-European.[12] By about 600 BC, the Medes had set up an empire that included all of the present-day Kurdish areas and vast territories far beyond.

http://www.teppichfreunde-norddeutschland....ng/treffen.html “

To answer the question of the people about our Idea to form The Aryan Economic Union (AU) in the region as fallows:

The Persian Nation concerns

The Aryan Economic Union will bring back the Unity of the Aryan nations (Ērānšahr of Sassanid Empire era or Iranian people now) in the region. The Union won’t hurt the interest of the Persian nation at all. The Arab has it’s own Economic Union today; they don’t want other people in their Union unless other nations want to be their subordinate. The Arabs are superior now if we like it or not. They used of Islamic religion very well to be in that position. We are worshiping the Arab personality instead of God. We are not going to be free from the Arab Imperialist domination unless we reform the Islam. They changed the holly books to serve their interest. Look at our people in both Shitte Islam and Sunni Islam in this modern day, and think who are in control them through the Islamic Religion.

The Islamic Sayed families (Arab origin) are controlling our people through the religion, using them as they wish. Millions of our people died for the Sayed ambitions.

The Kurdish nation concerns

The Aryan Economic Union will serve you better when you are independent. The experiments of the Kurdistan region of Iraq proved of what we are saying. Our survivals in the region are impossible economically. The Arab won’t let us in peace, every day are passing they take more land. Our border used to be close to Kuwait and Jordan, where we are now. We like it or not we have to get united with our people in the future.

The Turkish nation concerns

You are the lonely gray wolves of the Middle East. Look at your boundaries you hurt every nations around your territory. Your nations are not connected to other Turkish speaker. The Kurdish nation helped you in the past. You are going to need them more than Europe. Join the Aryan Union for your own survival. Stop the animosity of the Kurdish people won’t help you in the future.

The Israeli nation concern

The Aryan Economic Union will serve your interest as much as serving the Iranian nations interest. For your own survival economically you need an ally in the region. Our history of the friendship in the region goes back long way. The Arab Imperalist hurt both our people under the pretext of Islam. We need each other more than ever to survive the terrorist ideology of destruction.

The statements by the Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal (Reuters) “If Israel quits Arab land, it could join Arab world” are not going to change the mentality of the Arab Imperialistic ambitions soon. When they come forward to recognize their past unjust against other people then will be hope to have peace with them. He should come forward to say we took lot of your land in the past. We are going to take in other Arab population to solve the conflict peacefully.

The European nations concern

We are different from the Aryan people of Europe. We don’t have any animosity toward the Jewish people at all. The Israeli are smart enough to see the differences between both European and Ērānšahr, Iranian or Aryan nations in the Middle East and Asia. We don’t have any thing to do with racist people in the world.

We are calling for the establishment of the Aryan Economic Union (AU) for our own survival economically. We are not against other people in the region. We want to be free from the Arab damnation.

The USA nations concern

The Aryan Economic Union will serve your interest economically. We want to be an ally to fight the terrorisms in the region. We don’t believe in the religion extremisms or terrorist ideology in the world. We want to live in peace in our homeland. We believe in hard work and cooperation with other nations around the world for peace and stability for the survival of human on the earth. We are your partner for peace around the world.

8:13 AM  
Blogger jaff sassani said...

FROM THE SASSANIAN KURD DEFENSE COMMITTEE (SKDC)


TO WHOM IT MAY CONSEREN:

We are the Jaff people in Iraq and Iran declaring our point of view regarding the situation in the Middle East as it is today and for future.

For last few days we are noticing few articles in the media concerning the Kurdish people struggle for freedom and the Western countries policy especially the US Government policy in the region. The articles today in Kurdistan observer by Axin Arbili, Dr. Mahmoud Othman statement plus many other articles in the Kurdish media indicating the resentment of the Western countries policy and especially the US Government policy in the region.

We are declaring to the world that our people in Kurdistan are not part of this kind of the childish propaganda. We believe that if the Kurdish people get any bad deals from other countries or any other nations in the region, should be blamed on the Kurdish leadership first before blaming other peoples or countries for our miserable life. Our people are suffering because of the Kurdish Government policy not other way around. We don’t appreciate to blame others for the failure of our own Government and Mr. Talabani policy in Kurdistan.

The Kurdish leadership did have very good opportunity for the last 16 years to organize themselves, take advantage of the situation to serve the people in Kurdistan but they choose different path. They took the corruptions path and mistreatment of the people in the region. When you treat your own people like that then you should be prepared for your eventual demise too.

The blame games won’t help the Kurdish people at all. If other countries are corrupt in the region that is their business not ours.

It is not to late to hold free election and listen to your own people. The people who wrote about your corruption Government should be honored. We all know very well, for last fifty years that Mr. Talabani was preaching the communist ideology, socialist international ideology but then come out to be the most horrible ruler in our history. Who should we blame the US Government or Mr. Talabani.

We like to point out our point of view for now and for the future openly as follows:

1-We are more than 40 million people in the region. We know very well that our people are part of the Aryan nations (called the Ērānšahr in the Sassanid Empire era and later we are called Iranian). We Kurd should join our struggle for freedom with other Iranian nations for our own survival in the future.

2- We should have the goal to form the Aryans Economic Union (AU) similar to the Europeans Economic Union (EU). Every nation within the AU should have the independent country and join each other like Europe for security and economic benefit.

3- The Turkish nation in Turkey is not connected to the Turkic-speaking people in Asia. We know very well that many different nations and countries, which Turkey abused them now and in the past, surround Turkey. The Turk does not have very bright future, they need our help just be patient. We are the people of the Medes, Achaemenids, Parthians and Sassanian soon or later will gain back our country and our dignity.

4-We needs to be clear with other nations about our policy so other nations believe on us. We don’t need to be like Mr. Talabani, one-day communist and other capitalist. We are not considering ourselves to be enemy of other nations in the region. We just want to get united with our people for our own good.

5-We should be friend with the Western countries and the US for the mutual benefit plus the Israel in the region.

Sincerely,

SKDC

http://jaff-sassanie.com/ShowContent.aspx?id=41&language=E

7:03 AM  
Blogger jaff sassani said...

Godfather Jalal Talabani and International Law Firm

The current President of Iraq Mr. Talabani and his family are running an organization called Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. His mafias Government are running part of the Iraqi Kurdistan region with about two million people of population. We are the Jaff people with population of over one million of that two million people under his family administration.

The budget money coming from the central Government of Iraq only this year are more than four billion Dollars plus the income from the region. He and his family are tacking most of the money to be deposited in the USA and Europeans banks.

We are starving because of this unjust Government. The US Government is legally the occupation force in Iraq based on the UN Security Council resolution. We are looking for the International Law Firm to represent our people in the USA court or the Europeans court to defend us and bring back the stolen wealth from our people to us.

If you are interested please send us an email so we can sign an agreement with your firm to represent us in the court.

Sincerely,

SKDC

Feb-15-2008

jaff.skdc@googlemail.com

2:33 AM  

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