Rise of do-it-yourself terrorism

Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar

Five years after 9/11, the main security threat faced by nations is not Al Qaida. It is the growing ability of small groups to inflict levels of damage unprecedented in history, and the growing inability of nations to check it.


Through history, the State has been powerful and individuals weak. But education and technology have now made small groups powerful enough to threaten or decimate the State. This is true of both Islamic and non-Islamic groups: it is trans-religious.

IRA cadres in Ireland and Basque terrorists in Spain and France are Christian terrorists. The Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka are Hindu terrorists who invented suicide bombing.

In the 1970s and 1980s, the JVP in Sri Lank represented Buddhist-Marxist terrorism. The Aum Shinrikyo is a Buddhist cult that in 1995 tried to kill thousands with nerve gas in the Tokyo metro.

Maoists in Nepal represent secular terrorism. So do Indian Maoists who operate in 162 out of 602 districts. Islamic terrorists have plenty of company.

In the US itself, the Unabomber Kaczynski maimed and killed people for 18 years before being caught. The two Oklahoma bombers killed 168 people in 1995. After 9/11, envelopes with anthrax were sent by mail to the Capitol and other places, causing panic in Washington.

The government never detected the perpetrators. A recent US intelligence report has emphasised that danger exists from home-group terrorists that nobody has heard of so far.

In India, the police and media tend to blame Pakistan for every bomb explosion. Yet, it now seems clear that many local Muslim groups (such as SIMI) are taking to violence too. So are Maoist outfits that have mushroomed all over India, especially in tribal areas.

Some have only the most rudimentary arms, yet storm police stations and control significant areas. Small groups can become large and strong in a weak state.

The Afghan government cannot quell the Taliban. In the tribal areas of Waziristan, the Pakistan Army tried to wipe out militants from Afghanistan as well as Central Asia and Chechnya who had sought sanctuary. After years of battle and the loss of 800 soldiers, the army has given up, withdrawn all forces and released militants in custody.

In return, the tribal elders of Waziristan have said they will not give sanctuary to any more foreigners (meaning foreign terrorists). Nobody has any way of enforcing this, nor does the deal do anything about militants already in Waziristan.

Conceivably, powerful states may one day be able to put down large militant outfits like the Taliban in Afghanistan or Chechen rebels in Russia. But this cannot prevent new aggrieved groups from forming constantly and inflicting immense damage.

Through most of history, small groups had only the sword or gun for killing, and so could kill only a few people at a time. But modern technology has given small groups access to mass-killing power.

Instructions on how to assemble a bomb are easily available on the Net. Mixing fertiliser and fuel oil creates deadly bombs that anybody can assemble. Suicide bombing is a low-tech delivery system that is virtually unstoppable.

Deadly explosives like RDX are available globally through sophisticated black markets, sometimes through the internet. So are assault rifles, grenades and rockets.

Cellphones provide communications that only the most sophisticated armies once had. Throw-away cellphones and changing e-mail addresses provide enough anonymity to foil the most sophisticated intelligence agencies.

This enables new militant groups to constantly form with impunity. The new Sunni and Shia militia in Iraq are not the only examples. The London bombers were not Middle Easterners. They were brought up in Britain, spoke with Yorkshire accents, and had no Al Qaida connection.

They easily built deadly bombs. A recent survey showed that almost a quarter of British Muslims felt the bombing was a justified response to British forces in Iraq. So, expect new British Muslim militant groups to form constantly.

The ability of new groups to keep forming and acquiring powers of destruction has aptly been called "do-it-yourself terrorism" by New York historian Faisal Devji.

Do-it-yourself terrorism does not require the support of an enemy State or major terrorist group. It can be done by anybody, and so cannot be checked by going after a Saddam or Osama. It can be checked, if at all, only by winning hearts and minds.

Will this happen? I doubt it. US politicians and media talk constantly of a war on terror, and guns and bombs do not win hearts and minds. Indeed, they can spawn fresh terrorists daily.

The future looks grim. With advancing technology, I expect small groups to become even more powerful, and the State to become even less capable of stopping them. The State will probably respond by acquiring draconian powers and crushing civil liberties.

Private wars between rival groups may spread, with the State a helpless spectator, as in Iraq and Lebanon. That may sound like gross pessimism. But I think it is also realism.

Source Times of India